SFeDu
of.211, Gorgoko St., 88 
Rostov-on-Don
Russia
344002
+7 (863) 250-59-54
This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
te@sfedu.ru

TERRA ECONOMICUS

Macroeconomic consequences of Khrushchev’s economic reforms


TERRA ECONOMICUS, Vol. 23, No 2,

Citation: Vinokurov S., Guryanov P. (2025). Macroeconomic consequences of Khrushchev’s economic reforms. Terra Economicus 23(2), 21–42 (in Russian). DOI: 10.18522/2073-6606-2025-232-21-42

Using the synthetic control method, we show that, beginning in 1963, the Soviet economy experienced a significant and persistent deviation of GDP per capita from the long-term trend. According to our preferred estimates, the lag explained by this effect alone accounted for 12,2 percent of GDP per capita. Such a significant impact of a single year to some extent contradicts the idea that the problems in the Soviet economy grew gradually. We relate this with the course of reforms in national economic management that took place between 1957 and 1965, when the initial plans to decentralize governance and increase the independence of regional economic administrations were abandoned at the end of 1962. The constructed counterfactual trend is based on data from the Maddison Project and spans centuries. This allows us to conclude that the Soviet economy was not “path-dependent” to exclude movement towards greater prosperity. Using V-Dem data, we found that in 1962, there was a decline in state ownership and direct control of economic sectors in the comparison countries – the measure that correlates best with the deviation from counterfactual trends. However, the nature of this correlation does not permit us to draw a definitive conclusion that the divergence from the trend was due to processes occurring in other countries or opportunities missed by Soviet economy due to its specific nature. An analysis of production factor dynamics and total factor productivity reveals that the slowing down relative to trend corresponds to a slowing down in capital accumulation. Given the increasing rate of capital accumulation, this suggests that rejecting decentralization reduced the efficiency with which capital was allocated.

Keywords: Khrushchev’s economic reform; synthetic control method; decentralization; path dependence; state ownership; control over economy
JEL codes: N10, N40, P240


References:
  • Аллен Р.С. (2013). От фермы к фабрике: новая интерпретация советской промышленной революции. М.: Российская политическая энциклопедия (РОССПЭН). [Allen, R. (2013). Farm to Fabric: A Reinterpretation of the Soviet Industrial Revolution. Moscow: Russian Political Encyclopedia Publ. (in Russian)].
  • Артемов Е.Т. (2020). От Сталина к Хрущеву: мотивы и результаты новаций в экономической политике. Уральский исторический вестник (1), 62–70. [Artemov, E., Vodichev, E. (2020). The economic policies of the Khrushchev decade. Historiography. Quaestio Rossica 8(5), 1822–1839 (in Russian)]. DOI: 10.15826/qr.2020.5.562
  • Артемов Е.Т. (2022). Несостоявшееся ускорение: военно-стратегический фактор в экономической политике Н.С. Хрущева. Российская история (4), 186–198. [Artemov, E. (2022). Failed acceleration: Military-strategic factor in Khrushchev's economic policy. Russian History (4), 186–198 (in Russian)]. DOI: 10.31857/S0869568722040203
  • Баканов С.А. (2012). Государственный бюджет СССР в 1950–80-е годы: динамика и структура расходов. Научный диалог (5), 304–326. [Bakanov, S. (2021). State budget of USSR in 1950s – 80s: Dynamics and structure of expenditures. Nauchnyi dialog (5), 304–326 (in Russian)]. DOI: 10.24224/2227-1295-2021-5-304-326
  • Бронштейн В.В. (2024). Коммунистическая утопия вместо «китайского чуда». Новое прошлое (1), 124–143. [Bronstein, V. (2024). A communist utopia instead of a Chinese miracle. The New Past (1), 124–143 (in Russian)]. DOI: 10.18522/2500-3224-2024-1-124-143
  • Водичев Е.Г., Аблажей Н.Н. (2023). Стратегический план «построения коммунизма» в СССР: амбиции и идеология хрущевской эпохи. Всероссийский экономический журнал ЭКО (2), 137–151. [Vodichev, E., Ablazhey, N. (2023). The strategic plan for the "building of communism" in the USSR: The economic ambitions and ideology of the Khrushchev era. ECO (2), 137–151 (in Russian)]. DOI: 10.30680/ECO0131-7652-2023-2-137-151
  • Горлов В.Н. (2022). Политические причины принятия решения об экономической реформе 1957 года в СССР. Вестник Московского государственного лингвистического университета. Общественные науки (4), 67–73. [Gorlov, V. (2022). Political reasons for the decision on economic reform in 1957 in the USSR. Vestnik of Moscow State Linguistic University. Social Sciences (4), 67–73 (in Russian)]. DOI: 10.52070/2500-347Х_2022_4_849_67
  • Джалилов Т.А., Пивоваров Н.Ю. (2019). От И.В. Сталина к Н.С. Хрущеву: тенденции развития советской внешней торговли во второй половине 1950-х годов. Иркутский историко-экономический ежегодник: 2019, 15–24. [Jalilov, T., Pivovarov, N. (2019). From Stalin to Khrushchev: Trends of Soviet foreign trade in the second half of the 1950s. Irkutskij istoriko-ekonomicheskij ezhegodnik: 2019, 15–24 (in Russian)]. DOI: 10.17150/978-5-7253-3001-4.02
  • Зеленин И.Е. (2000). Аграрная политика Н.С. Хрущева и сельское хозяйство. Труды Института российской истории РАН (2), 394–425. [Zelenin, I. (2000). Agrarian policy of N.S. Khrushchev and agriculture. Trudy Instituta rossijskoj istorii RAN (2), 394–425 (in Russian)].
  • Зубкова Е.Ю. (2022). От «общества выживания» к «обществу потребления»: трансформация условий и практик потребления в СССР (1940–1960-е годы). Петербургский исторический журнал (4), 45–61. [Zubkova, E. (2022). From a "survival society" to a "consumption society": the transformation of conditions and practices of consumption in the USSR (1940s–1960s). Petersburg Historical Journal (4), 45–61 (in Russian)]. DOI: 10.51255/2311-603X_2022_4_45
  • Карпушин Е.С., Гурьянов П.А. (2018). Потребительское кредитование в Советском Союзе: уроки истории. Управленческий учет и финансы (3), 216–224. [Karpushin, E., Guryanov, P. (2018). Consumer lending in the Soviet Union: lessons from history. Upravlencheskij uchet i finansy (3), 216–224 (in Russian)].
  • Круглов В.Н. (2014). «Последний сталинский голод»: кризис продовольственного обеспечения в СССР начала 1950-х гг. Экономическая история: ежегодник 2013, 403–446. [Kruglov, V. (2014). The last hunger under Stalin: Food supply crisis in the USSR during early to mid 1950. Ekonomicheskaya istoriya: ezhegodnik 2013, 403–446 (in Russian)].
  • Кудров В.М. (1995). Советский экономический рост: официальные данные и альтернативные оценки. Вопросы экономики (10), 100–112. [Kudrov, V. (1995). Soviet economic growth: Official data and alternative estimates. Voprosy ekonomiki (10), 100–112 (in Russian)].
  • Кудров В.М. (2003). Советская экономика в ретроспективе: опыт переосмысления. М.: Наука. [Kudrov, V. (2003). The Soviet Economy in Retrospect: An Experience of Rethinking. Moscow: Nauka Publ. (in Russian)].
  • Кудров В.М. (2011). Международные экономические сопоставления и проблемы инновационного развития. М.: Юстицинформ. [Kudrov, V. (2011). International Economic Comparisons and Problems of Innovative Development. Moscow: Yusticinform Publ. (in Russian)].
  • Лазарева Л.Н. (2022). Экономическая реформа 1965 года в контексте проблемы многофакторности причин распада СССР. Исторический курьер 4(24), 32–44. [Lazareva, L. (2022). Economic reform of 1965 in the context of the problem of multifactorial causes of the collapse of the USSR. Historical Courier 4(24), 32–44 (in Russian)]. DOI: 10.31518/2618-9100-2022-4-3
  • Лаптева Е.В. (2015). Англо-американская советология о советской экономической модели и «Косыгинской» реформе 1965 года. Историко-экономические исследования 16(3), 481–493. [Lapteva, E. (2015). Anglo-American sovietology on the Soviet economic model and Kosygin's reform in 1965. Istoriko-ekonomicheskie issledovaniya = Journal of Economic History and History of Economics 16(3), 481–493 (in Russian)]. DOI: 10.17150/2308-2588.2015.16(3).481-493
  • Лузан П.П. (2002). Был ли триумф советской экономики? ЭКО. Экономика и организация промышленного производства (5), 151–160. [Luzan, P. (2002). Was there a triumph of the Soviet economy? EKO. Ekonomika i organizaciya promyshlennogo proizvodstva (5), 151–160 (in Russian)].
  • Мау В.А. (2024). Экономика развитого социализма: опыт и уроки. Вопросы экономики (11), 90–119. [Mau, V. (2024). Economic system of developed socialism: Experience and lessons. Voprosy Ekonomiki (11), 90–119 (in Russian)]. DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2024-11-90-119
  • Мерцалов В.И. (2015). Происхождение и эволюция реформы управления промышленностью и строительством 1957–1965 гг. Чита: Изд-во Забайкальского государственного университета. [Mercalov, V. (2015). Origin and Evolution of the Reform of Industrial and Construction Management 1957–1965. Chita: Publishing House of Transbaikal State University (in Russian)].
  • Минеев А.И. (2024). Особенности изучения реформы управления промышленностью и строительством в новейшей российской историографии. Новейшая история России (14), 127–143. [Mineev, A. (2024). Features of the study of industrial and construction management reform in the latest Russian historiography. Modern History of Russia (14), 127–143 (in Russian)]. DOI: 10.21638/spbu24.2024.108
  • Мэддисон А. (2012) Контуры мировой экономики в 1–2030 гг. Очерки по макроэкономической истории. М.: Изд. Института Гайдара. [Maddison, A. (2012). Contours of the World Economy, 1–2030 AD. Essays in Macro-Economic History. Moscow: Gajdar Institute Publishing House (in Russian)].
  • Никифоров Ю.С. (2020). Идеолого-политическое обеспечение трансформации экономики и социума в СССР 1950–80-х гг.: исторические вызовы и скрытые тенденции. Вестник Костромского государственного университета 26(4), 50–57. [Nikiforov, Yu. (2020). The ideological and political support for the transformation of the economy and society in the USSR of the 1950–1980s: Historical challenges and hidden trends. Vestnik of Kostroma State University 26(4), 50–57 (in Russian)]. DOI: 10.34216/1998-0817-2020-26-4-50-57
  • Пасс А.А., Рыжий П.А. (2012). Огосударствление промысловой кооперации в СССР во второй половине 1950-х гг.: причины и последствия. Социум и власть (5), 114–122. [Pass, A., Ryzhij, P. (2012). Nationalization of industrial cooperation in the USSR in the second half of the 1950s: Causes and consequences. Socium i vlast (5), 114–122 (in Russian)].
  • Пивоваров Н.Ю. (2019). Зерновой кризис 1963 г. в СССР и внешнеторговые коллизии его разрешения. Гуманитарные науки в Сибири 26(1), 28–33. [Pivovarov, N. (2019). The grain crisis of 1963 in the Soviet Union and foreign trade collusions of its resolution. Gumanitarnye nauki v Sibiri 26(1), 28–33 (in Russian)]. DOI: 10.15372/HSS20190105
  • Пивоваров Н.Ю., Симонов М.А. (2024). Советское руководство и разработка совнархозной реформы: от идей к реализации (1953–1957 гг.). Уральский исторический вестник (1), 108−118. [Pivovarov, N., Simonov, M. (2024). Soviet leaders and the development of the sovnarkhoz reform: From ideas to realization (1953–1957). Ural Historical Journal (1), 108−118 (in Russian)]. DOI: 10.30759/1728-9718-2024-1(82)-108-118
  • Пихоя Р.Г. (2009). Москва. Кремль. Власть. 1945–2005: В 3 томах, т. 1. 1945–1964. М.: Новый хронограф. [Pihoya, R. (2009). Moscow. Kremlin. Power. 1945–2005: In 3 vols., vol. 1. 1945–1964. Moscow: Novyj hronograf Publ. (in Russian)].
  • Пономаренко А.Н. (2000). Исторические национальные счета России: 1961–1990 гг. Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики 4(4), 505–527. [Ponomarenko, A. (2000). Historical national accounts of Russia: 1961–1990. HSE Economic Journal 4(4), 505–527 (in Russian)].
  • Попов Г.Г. (2019). Между либерализацией коммунизма и ортодоксальным марксизмом (осмысление эволюции советского экономического развития 1950–1960-х годов). Terra Economicus 17(4), 113–128. [Popov, G. (2019). Between the liberalization of communism and orthodoxmarxism (understanding evolution of soviet economic development in the 1950s and 1960s). Terra Economicus 17(4), 113–128 (in Russian)]. DOI: 10.23683/2073-6606-2019-17-4-113-128
  • Пыжиков А.В. (2002). Хрущевская «оттепель». М.: ОЛМА Медиа Групп. [Pyzhikov, A. (2002). The Khrushchev's "Thaw". Moscow: OLMA Media Group Publ. (in Russian)].
  • Раков А.А. (2020). Приоритеты советской аграрной политики в 1953–1964 гг. и попытки преодоления «сталинских перекосов» в сельском хозяйстве. Журнал Новой экономической ассоциации (4), 162–183. [Rakov, A. (2020). Priorities of the Soviet agrarian policy in 1953–1964 and attempts to overcome Stalin's disbalance in agriculture. Journal of the New Economic Association (4), 162–183 (in Russian)]. DOI: 10.31737/2221-2264-2020-48-4-7
  • Смирнов С.В. (2012). Динамика промышленного производства и экономический цикл в СССР и России, 1861–2012: препринт WP2/2012/04. М.: Изд. дом Высшей школы экономики. [Smirnov, S. (2012). Dynamics of industrial production and the economic cycle in the USSR and Russia, 1861–2012. Preprint WP2/2012/04. Moscow: HSE Publishing House (in Russian)].
  • Смирнов С.Н. (2021). Путь исследователя: оценка современника. Мир России. Социология. Этнология 30(2), 180–194. [Smirnov, S. (2021). An explorer's path through the eyes of his contemporary. Mir Rossii = Universe of Russia 30(2), 180–194 (in Russian)]. DOI: 10.17323/1811-038X-2021-30-2-180-194
  • Сухара М. (2000). Оценка промышленного производства России: 1960–1990 годы. Вопросы статистики (2), 55–63. [Suhara, M. (2000). Assessment of industrial production in Russia: 1960–1990 years. Voprosy statistiki (2), 55–63 (in Russian)].
  • Томилин В.Н. (2021). Государство и колхозы: 1946–1964 гг. М.: АИРО-XXI. [Tomilin, V. (2021). The State and Collective Farms: 1946–1964. Moscow: AIRO-XXI (in Russian)].
  • Ханин Г.И. (2001). 50-е годы – десятилетие триумфа советской экономики. Экономика и организация промышленного производства (ЭКО) (11), 166–170. [Hanin, G. (2001). The 1950s – The decade of triumph of the Soviet economy. EKO (11), 166–170 (in Russian)].
  • Ханин Г.И. (2003). Советское экономическое чудо: миф или реальность? Статья четвертая. Свободная мысль (12), 61–76. [Hanin, G. (2003). The Soviet economic miracle: Myth or reality? (4th article). Svobodnaya mysl (12), 61–76 (in Russian)].
  • Ханин Г.И. (2015). Экономика и общество России: ретроспектива и перспектива, т. 1. Новосибирск: Сибирская академия государственной службы. [Hanin, G. (2015). Economy and Society of Russia: Retrospect and Prospect, vol. 1. Novosibirsk: Publishing House of Siberian Academy of Public Administration (in Russian)].
  • Ханин Г.И. (2016). Надо ли защищать советскую экономику лукавыми цифрами? Terra Economicus 14(1), 18–26. [Khanin, G. (2016). Whether soviet economy needs to be protected by the crafty figures? Terra Economicus 14(1), 18–26 (in Russian)]. DOI: 10.18522/2073-6606-2016-14-1-18-26
  • Холодилин К. (1997). Экономическая динамика СССР в 1950–1990 годах: опыт исчисления единого экономического показателя. Вопросы статистики (4), 64–75. [Holodilin, K. (1997). Economic dynamics of the USSR in 1950–1990: An experience of calculating a single economic indicator. Voprosy statistiki (4), 64–75 (in Russian)].
  • Шестаков В.А. (2006). Социально-экономическая политика советского государства в 50-е – середине 60-х годов. М.: Наука. [Shestakov, V. (2006). Socio-Economic Policy of the Soviet State in the 50s – mid-60s. Moscow: Nauka Publ. (in Russian)].
  • Шестаков В.А. (2012). Особенности мобилизационного развития СССР в годы хрущевской «оттепели». Труды Института российской истории РАН (10), 319–342. [Shestakov, V. (2012). Peculiarities of the mobilization development of the USSR during the Khrushchev "thaw". Trudy Instituta rossijskoj istorii RAN (10), 319–342 (in Russian)].
  • Abadie, A. (2021). Using synthetic controls: feasibility, data requirements, and methodological aspects. Journal of Economic Literature 59(2), 391–425. DOI: 10.1257/jel.20191450
  • Bjerkholt, O. (2005). Markets, models and planning: The Norwegian experience (№ 14/2005). Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  • Chulkov, D. (2014). Innovation in centralized organizations: examining evidence from Soviet Russia. Journal of Economic Studies 41(1), 123–139. DOI: 10.1108/JES-05-2011-0057
  • Didenko, D., van Leeuwen, B., Foldvari, P. (2023). Average years of education and cost based human capital per capita in former Soviet Union areas (1920–2010).
  • Easterly, W., Fischer, S. (1995). The Soviet economic decline. The World Bank Economic Review 9(3), 341–371.
  • Enikolopov, R., Zhuravskaya, E. (2007) Decentralization and political institutions. Journal of Public Economics 91(11-12), 2261–2290.
  • Feygin, Y. (2024). Choosing stagnation. The Kosygin reforms and the rise of Brezhnev's stagnationary coalition. Europe-Asia Studies 76(1), 49–71. DOI: 10.1080/09668136.2023.2257005
  • Feenstra, R., Inklaar, R., Timmer, M. (2015). The next generation of the Penn World Table. American Economic Review 105(10), 3150–3182.
  • Harrison, M. (2002). Coercion, compliance, and the collapse of the Soviet command economy. The Economic History Review 55(3), 397–433.
  • Jia, J., Liang, X., Ma, G. (2021). Political hierarchy and regional economic development: Evidence from a spatial discontinuity in China. Journal of Public Economics (194), 104352. DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104352
  • Kharas, H., Kohli, H. (2011). What is the middle income trap, why do countries fall into it, and how can it be avoided? Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies 3(3), 281–289. DOI: 10.1177/097491011100300302
  • Korolev, I. (2021). How could Russia have developed without the revolution of 1917? Annals of Economics and Statistics (144), 75–112. DOI: https://doi.org/10.15609/annaeconstat2009.144.0075
  • Lange, E., Pharo, H. (1991). Planning and economic policy in Norway, 1945–1960. Scandinavian Journal of History 16(3), 215–228.
  • Lin, J., Tao, R., Liu, M. (2003). Decentralization, deregulation and economic transition in China. London School of Economics, mimeo.
  • Markevich, A., Nafziger, S. (2017). State and market in Russian industrialization, 1870–2010. In: O'Rourke, K., Williamson, J. (2017). The Spread of Modern Industry to the Periphery since 1871. New York: Oxford University Press, pp. 33–62.
  • Markevich, A, Zhuravskaya, E. (2011). M-form hierarchy with poorly-diversified divisions: A case of Khrushchev's reform in Soviet Russia. Journal of Public Economics (95), 1550–60. DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2011.06.003
  • Ponce-Rodríguez, R., Hankla, C., Martinez-Vazquez, J., Heredia-Ortiz, E. (2016). Political institutions and federalism: A strong decentralization theorem. GEN Working Paper A, 4.
  • Sakisaka, M. (1963). Economic planning in Japan. The Developing Economies 1(2), 202–217.
  • Sen, A. (1980). Famines. World development 8(9), 613–621.
  • Toumanoff, P. (1987). Economic reform and industrial performance in the Soviet Union: 1950–1984. Comparative Economic Studies (29), 128–149.
  • Weitzman, M. (1970). Soviet postwar economic growth and capital-labor substitution. The American Economic Review 60(4), 676–692.
  • Xu, С. (2011). The fundamental institutions of China's reforms and development. Journal of Economic Literature 49(4), 1076–1151. DOI: 10.1257/jel.49.4.1076
  • Yoshioka, S., Kawasaki, H. (2016). Japan's high-growth postwar period: The role of economic plans. Tokyo: Economic and Social Research Institute Cabinet Office.

Publisher: Southern Federal University
ISSN: 2073-6606