SFeDu
  • Home
  • Issues
  • 2017
  • No 1
  • Shock therapy as a generator of limits to rationality in the Russian transitional economy in the 1990s

Shock therapy as a generator of limits to rationality in the Russian transitional economy in the 1990s

TERRA ECONOMICUS, , Vol. 15 (no. 1),

The paper offers Post Keynesian/Institutionalist critique of the shock therapy policy in Russia by means of analyzing its influence on rationality of the Russian economic agents in the 1990s. The main idea is that the shock therapy policy’s implementation contributed to an institutional hiatus and led to both rising information overload and higher uncertainty. It created barriers to calculated valuations of expected costs and benefits in the process of decision-making. As a result, behaviour of agents became more arational. In the process of decision-making agents of the Post-Soviet Russian economy relied more on emotions, advertising, group pressure and “behaviour of others” rather than individual optimizing techniques. All these aspects were substitutes for real knowledge. The paper considers forms of arational behaviour of agents in the processes of consumption, investment and financial decision-making and its negative consequences. So such arational behaviour contributed to the great economic crash of the Russian transitional economy in the 1990s. Consumers generated adverse tendencies because of conspicuous consumption of the Western goods at the expense of demand for domestic goods. Investors refused to buy fixed capital goods due to higher uncertainty and provoked both investment collapse and technological degradation. Finally, agents that demanded on the financial markets were fooled by numerous financial fraudulent “players”. It steered away funds from financing real investment projects.


Keywords: shock therapy; uncertainty; rationality; transition; institutional hiatus

References:
  • Binswanger, M. 1999. The co-evolution between the real and financial sectors: the optimistic “New Growth Theory View” versus the pessimistic “Keynesian View”. Diskussionspapier Nr. 99-01 an der Fachhochschule Solothurn/Nordwestschweiz in Olten.
  • Carvalho, F. J. C. 1992. Mr. Keynes and the Post Keynesians. Principles of Macroeconomics for a Monetary Production Economy. Aldershot: Edward Elgar.
  • Davidson, P. 1972. Money and the Real World. London: Macmillan.
  • Davidson, P. 1991. Is probability theory relevant for uncertainty? A Post Keynesian perspective. Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 5, no. 1, 129–143.
  • Davidson, P. 1996. Reality and economic theory. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, vol. 18, no. 4, 479–508.
  • Davidson, P. 1999. Keynes’ principle of Effective Demand versus the bedlam of the New Keynesians. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, vol. 21, no. 4, 571–588.
  • Dequech, D. 2000a. Asset choice, liquidity preference and rationality under uncertainty. Journal of Economic Issues, vol. 34, no. 1, 159–176.
  • Dequech, D. 2000b. Fundamental uncertainty and ambiguity. Eastern Economic Journal, vol. 26, no. 1, Winter, 41–60.
  • Dzarasov, S. S. 2010. The Post Keynesian alternative for the Russian economy. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, vol. 33, no. 1, 17–40.
  • Dzarasov, R. S. 2011. Eichnerian megacorp and investment behaviour of Russian corporations. Cambridge Journal of Economics, vol. 35, 199–217.
  • Dow, S., Ghosh, D. and Ruziev, G. (2008). A stages approach to banking development in transition economies. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, vol. 31, no. 1, 3–33.
  • Grahl, J. 1988. Productivity slowdown and financial tensions, pp. 183–218 / In: Arestis P. (ed). Post-Keynesian Monetary Economics: New Approaches to Financial Modelling. Aldershot: Edward Elgar.
  • Hodgson, G. M. 1994. Optimization and evolution: Winter’s critique of Friedman revisited, Cambridge Journal of Economics, vol. 18, 413–430.
  • Hodgson, G. M. 1997. The ubiquity of habits and rules. Cambridge Journal of Economics, vol. 21, 663–684.
  • Kapeller, J. and Schutz, B. 2015. Conspicuous consumption, inequality and debt: the nature of the consumption-driven profit-led regimes. Metroeconomica, vol. 66, no. 1, 51–70.
  • Keynes, J. M. 1936. The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. London: Macmillan.
  • Keynes, J. M. 1937. The general theory of employment. Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 51, 209–223.
  • Kornai, J. 1980. Economics of Shortage, Amsterdam. North-Holland Publishing Company.
  • Kornai, J. 1993. Transformation recession, Collegium Budapest. Institute for Advanced Studies Discussion Papers N 1, June.
  • Kozul-Wright, R. and Rayment, P. 1997. The institutional hiatus in economies in transition and its policy consequences. Cambridge Journal of Economics, vol. 21, 641–661.
  • Kregel, J. 1995. A financial structure for developing market mechanisms in Eastern Europe, pp. 168–179 / In Arestis, P. and Chick, V. (eds.) Finance, Development and Structural Change. Aldershot: Edward Elgar.
  • Lah, M. and Sušjan, A. 1999. Rationality of transitional consumers: a Post Keynesian view. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, vol. 21, no. 4, 589–602.
  • Lavoie, M. 1992. Foundations of Post-Keynesian Economic Analysis. Aldershot: Edward Elgar.
  • Lavoie, M. 1994. A Post Keynesian approach to consumer choice. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, vol. 16, no. 4, 539–562.
  • Lavoie, M. 2006. Introduction to Post-Keynesian Economics. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.
  • Leibenstein, H. 1976. Beyond Economic Man. A New Foundation for Microeconomics. London: Harvard University Press.
  • Marangos, J. 2002. A Post Keynesian critique of privatization policies in transition economies. Journal of International Development, vol. 14, 573–589.
  • Minsky, H. P. 1986. Stabilizing an Unstable Economy. London: Yale University Press. Mouhammed, A. H. 1999. Veblen and Keynes: on the economic theory of the capitalist economy. Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics, vol. 155, 594–609.
  • Murrell, P. 1993. What is shock therapy? What did it do in Poland and Russia? PostSoviet Affairs, vol. 9, no. 2, 111–140.
  • Nell, E. J. (ed.) 1998. Transformational Growth and the Business Cycle. London: Routledge. Nishi, H. 2012. A dynamic analysis of debt-led and debt-burdened growth regimes with Minskian financial structure. Metroeconomica, vol. 63, no. 4, 634–660.
  • Parenteau, R. W. 1999. Irrational exuberance: a Minsky model of financial instability with an equity market and adaptive expectation behaviour, p. 52 / In Proceedings of the 9th Annual Hyman P. Minsky Conference on Financial Structure. Structure, Instability and the World Economy: Reflections on the Economics of Hyman P. Minsky, April, 21–23. New York: The Jerome Levy Economics Institute of Bard College.
  • Pollin, R. 1999. Securities transactions tax for U. S. financial markets, pp. 44–45 / In Proceedings of the 9th Annual Hyman P. Minsky Conference on Financial Structure. Structure, Instability and the World Economy: Reflections on the Economics of Hyman P. Minsky, April, 21–23. New York: The Jerome Levy Economics Institute of Bard College.
  • Raines, J. P. and Leathers, C. G. 2011. Behavioral finance and Post Keynesian–institutionalist theories of financial markets. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, vol. 33, no. 4, 539–553.
  • Sapir, J. 1999. Russia’s Crash of August 1998: diagnosis and prescription. Post-Soviet Affairs, vol. 15, no. 1, 1–36.
  • Shmelev, N. 1997. Neplatezhi – Problema Nomer 1 v Rossiyskoy Ekonomike. Voprosy Ekonomiki, no. 4, 26–41. (In Russian.)
  • Simon, H. 1959. Theories of decision-making in economic and behavioural sciences. American Economic Review, vol. 49, 253–282.
  • Singh, A. 1995. The stock market, economic efficiency and industrial development, pp. 71–112 / In: Arestis P. and Chick V. (ed.) Finance, Development and Structural Change. Aldershot: Edward Elgar.
  • Tsang, S.-K. 1996. Against “Big-Bang” in economic transition: normative and positive arguments. Cambridge Journal of Economics, vol. 20, 183–193.
  • Trezzini, A. 2011. The irreversibility of consumption as a source of endogenous demand-driven economic growth. Review of Political Economy, vol. 23, no. 4, 537–556.
  • Veblen, T. 1898. Why is economics not an evolutionary science? Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 12, 373–397.
  • Weber, M. 1965. The Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism. London: Allen and Unwin.
Publisher: Southern Federal University
Founder: Southern Federal University
ISSN: 2073-6606