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  • Selection and estimation of parameters of business cycles of Russian economy

Selection and estimation of parameters of business cycles of Russian economy

TERRA ECONOMICUS, , Vol. 12 (no. 2),
p. 12-21

The paper defines the parameters of the medium-term and short-term cycles in the Russian economy. The author proves that the crisis of 2008–2009 had occurred in the bottom of the medium-term cycle, which gives reason to believe that the next crisis could happen in summer 2019, and precedes the recession in the beginning of 2015. The dynamics of the share of industrial production in the branch structure of the economy is used for the business cycle parameters estimation.

Keywords: branch structure of the economy; trend; business cycle; period of oscillation; economic crisis

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Publisher: Southern Federal University
Founder: Southern Federal University
ISSN: 2073-6606