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TERRA ECONOMICUS

ГЛОБАЛЬНАЯ ФИНАНСОВАЯ НЕСТАБИЛЬНОСТЬ КАК «НОВАЯ НОРМАЛЬНОСТЬ»: ИСТОКИ, ВЫЗОВЫ, ПЕРСПЕКТИВЫ

TERRA ECONOMICUS, , Том 15 (номер 3),

Масштабы противоречий в глобализованном мире, связанных с ускоренным ростом населения в условиях ограниченности жизненно важных ресурсов и обо- стрения экологических угроз, а также нарастающего разрыва между темпами роста производства и денежной массы, формируют ситуацию «новой нормальности», которая характеризуется глобальной финансовой нестабильностью и обострением борьбы валют. Мировая финансовая система преуспела в манипулировании рынком, спеку- ляциях и операциях с ценными бумагами, но не справляется со своей основной задачей: посредничеством между сбережениями и инвестициями в глобальном масштабе. В ближайшие десятилетия она будет разделена (если абстрагироваться от британского фунта и японской иены) на неустойчивые зоны преимущественного влияния доллара (относительно стабильную), евро (сокращающуюся) и юаня (растущую). Российский рубль останется на мировой периферии, а ожидаемый некоторый рост его влияния будет иметь преимущественно региональный характер. В целом мир и дальше будет двигаться к мультиполярной финансовой архитектуре, формирование которой будет свя- зано с «разогревом» новых очагов финансовой нестабильности, а также усиле- нием волатильности и системных рисков в долгосрочной перспективе. В настоящее время начинается очередной виток обострения финансовых противоречий, связанный с усилением валютных войн. На кону новых столкновений – контроль над производством, обновляемым по быстро прогрессирующим технологиям Индустрии 4.0. Принципиально важно, кто, используя в том числе монетарные рычаги, сможет стать лидером новой индустриальной структуры мира. К концу 2020-х гг. основная часть мировой обрабатывающей промышленности уже будет охвачена технологиями промышленного интернета вещей. В сочетании с ожидаемым расширением сферы и силы влияния юаня это позволит подвести промежуточную черту и зафиксировать новые позиции сторон. Дальнейшее развитие событий в сфере глобальных финансов будет определяться динамикой и структурой экономико-монетарного потенциала, характеризующего мощность товарно-денежных потоков стран мира. Тот глобальный игрок, который в ходе формирования новой индустриальной структуры мира сумеет добиться его большей динамичности и сбалансированности, получит важные преимущества в борьбе за мировое лидерство.


Ключевые слова: финансовая нестабильность; «новая нормальность»; де- нежно-кредитная политика; монетарные центры; борьба валют

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  • Rickards, J. (2011). Currency wars: the making of the next global crisis. London: Penguin Books Ltd.
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Издатель: Южный Федеральный Университет
Учредитель: Южный федеральный университет
ISSN: 2073-6606