SFeDu
of.211, Gorgoko St., 88 
Rostov-on-Don
Russia
344002
+7 (863) 250-59-54
This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
te@sfedu.ru

TERRA ECONOMICUS

Effectiveness of family policy in Russia: Evidence-based approach


TERRA ECONOMICUS, , Vol. 19 (no. 3),

Family policy in Russia, is based on a “narrow” demographic interpretation that neglects policy effectiveness and impact of state support on fertility indicators. This gap can be addressed using the evidence-based approach, which embraces both the influence of public policies on fertility, and human capital. The paper discusses the theoretical underpinnings of policy based on the Becker-Barreau and Baldrin-Jones concepts. We show the importance of incorporating “Big Data” into family policy analysis to address the problem of data completeness and analytical information for family policy needs. We rely on A. Sagradov’s ideas about quantitative determination of population reproduction patterns with nondemographic processes, including institutional changes and transformation of economic mechanisms of family policy. We estimated the demographic result per unit of budget expenditures in Russia (based on empirical data from EMISS and the Federal Treasury for 86 regions from 2011 to 2021, with a breakdown by months). The “random forest” method is used to identify the key factors influencing the results of the machine learning model, and to demonstrate the significance of parameters for assessing the socio-economic effectiveness of family policy in Russia. The research findings indirectly confirm the pronatalist nature of family policy in Russia, the effectiveness of which is ensured by economic mechanisms of direct cash payments to the population. The paper concludes with a discussion of the prospects for using an evidence-based approach to family policy in Russia.
Citation: Kapoguzov E.A., Chupin R.I. (2021). Effectiveness of family policy in Russia: Evidence-based approach. Terra Economicus 19(3): 20–36. DOI: 10.18522/2073-6606-2021-19-3-20-36
Acknowledgment: The article was prepared within the framework of state assignment of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, project «Family households as an economic entity».


Keywords: family households; evidence-based policy; family policy; regulation of marital and reproductive behavior

JEL codes: D10; B52; C71

References:
  • Архангельский В.Н., Зинькина Ю.В., Коротаев А.В., Шульгин С.Г. (2017). Современные тенденции рождаемости в России и влияние мер государственной поддержки // Социологические исследования (3): 43–50. [Arkhangelskiy V.N., Zinkina Yu.V., Korotaev A.V., Shulgin S.G. (2017). Modern trends in the birth rate in Russia and the impact of state support measures. Sociological Research (3): 43–50 (in Russian)].
  • Афанасьев Р.С., Голованова Н.В. (2016). Понятие эффективности бюджетных расходов: теория и законодательство // Финансовый журнал (1): 61–69. [Afanasyev R.S., Golovanova N.V. (2016). The concept of efficiency of budget expenditures: theory and legislation. Financial Journal (1): 61–69 (in Russian)].
  • Захаров С.В. (2016). Скромные результаты пронаталистской политики на фоне долговременной эволюции рождаемости в России // Часть 1. Демографическое обозрение 3(3): 6–38. [Zakharov S.V. (2016). Modest results of the pro-natalist policy against the background of the long-term evolution of the birth rate in Russia. Part 1. Demographic Review, 3(3). 6–38 (in Russian)].
  • Зубарев А.В., Нестерова К.В.(2019). Оценка последствий пенсионной реформы в России в глобальной CGE-OLG модели // Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики 23(3): 384–417. [Zubarev A.V., Nesterova K.V. (2019). Assessment of the consequences of the pension reform in Russia in the global CGE-OLG model. Economic Journal of the Higher School of Economics 23(3): 384–417 (in Russian)].
  • Зубаревич Н.В., Макаренцева А.О., Мкртчян Н.В. (2020). Социально-экономическое положение регионов и демографические итоги 2019 г. (по результатам регулярного Мониторинга ИНСАП РАНХиГС) // Экономическое развитие России 27(4): 73–87. [Zubarevich N.V., Makarentseva A.O., Mkrtchyan N.V. (2020). The socio-economic situation of the regions and demographic results of 2019 (based on the results of regular Monitoring by INSAP RANEPA). Economic Development of Russia 27(4): 73–87 (in Russian)].
  • Капогузов Е.А., Чупин Р.И., Харламова М.С. (2020a). Моделирование брачной рождаемости в России с учетом региональной поливариативности семейной политики // Terra Economicus 18(4): 32–46. [Kapoguzov E.A., Chupin R.I., Kharlamova M.S. (2020a). Modeling of the marital birth rate in Russia taking into account the regional multivariability of family policy. Terra Economicus 18(4): 32–46 (in Russian)].
  • Капогузов Е.А., Чупин Р.И., Харламова М.С. (2020b). Нарративы семейной политики в России: фокус на регионы // Journal of Economic Regulation 11(3): 6–20. [Kapoguzov E.A., Chupin R.I., Kharlamova M.S. (2020b). Narratives of family policy in Russia: focus on the regions. Journal of Economic Regulation 11(3): 6–20 (in Russian)].
  • Капогузов Е.А., Чупин Р.И., Харламова М.С. (2020c). Российская конституционная конверсия на фоне деинституционализации брака в США // Journal of Institutional Studies 12(2): 86–99. [Kapoguzov E.A., Chupin R.I., Kharlamova M.S. (2020c). Russian constitutional conversion against the background of deinstitutionalization of marriage in the United States. Journal of Institutional Studies 12(2): 86–99 (in Russian)].
  • Кучмаева О.В. (2017). Современные проблемы оценки эффективности семейной политики в Российской Федерации // Статистика и экономика (5): 85–93. [Kuchmaeva O.V. (2017). Modern problems of evaluating the effectiveness of family policy in the Russian Federation. Statistics and Economics (5): 85–93 (in Russian)].
  • Латов Ю.В. (2021). Рост человеческого капитала contra рост рождаемости // Journal of Institutional Studies 13(2): 82–99. [Latov Yu.V. (2021). The growth of human capital contra the growth of the birth rate. Journal of Institutional Studies 13(2): 82–99 (in Russian)].
  • Ловцова Н.И., Зайцев Д.В. (2018). Насилие в семье или насилие над семьей // Журнал исследований социальной политики 16(3): 529–536. [Lovtsova N.I., Zaitsev D.V. (2018). Domestic violence or violence against the family. Journal of Social Policy Research 16(3): 529–536 (in Russian)].
  • Петрякова О.Л. (2016). Роль статистики в оценке эффективности семейной политики // Системное управление (1): 27–27. [Petryakova O.L. (2016). The role of statistics in assessing the effectiveness of family policy. System Management (1): 27–27 (in Russian)].
  • Печерская Н.В. (2013). Перспективы российской семейной политики: принуждение к традиции // Журнал социологии и социальной антропологии 16(4): 94–105. [Pecherskaya N.V. (2013). Prospects of Russian family policy: Coercion to tradition. Journal of Sociology and Social Anthropology 16(4): 94–105 (in Russian)].
  • Радина Н.К. (2018). Независимые медиа и инициативы государственной семейной политики на этапе «пронаталистского поворота» // Журнал исследований социальной политики 16(2): 295–306. [Radina N.K. (2018). Independent media and initiatives of the state family policy at the stage of the “pronatalist turn”. Journal of Social Policy Research 16(2): 295–306 (in Russian)].
  • Ростовская Т.К., Кучмаева О.В., Безвербная Н.А.(2019). Состояние и перспективы семейной политики в России: социально-демографический анализ // Экономические и социальные перемены: факты, тенденции, прогноз 12(6): 209–227. [Rostovskaya T.K., Kuchmaeva O.V., Bezverbnaya N.A. (2019). The state and prospects of family policy in Russia: Socio-demographic analysis. Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast 12(6): 209–227 (in Russian)].
  • Рыбаковский Л.Л., Кожевникова Н.И. (2015). Восточный вектор демографического развития России // Народонаселение (1): 4–16. [Rybakovsky L.L., Kozhevnikova N.I. (2015). The Eastern vector of demographic development of Russia. Population (1): 4–16 (in Russian)].
  • Рыбаковский Л.Л., Савинков В., Кожевникова Н.И. (2017). Региональная динамика рождаемости и результативность демографической политики в России //Народонаселение (4): 4–18. [Rybakovsky L.L., Savinkov V., Kozhevnikova N.I. (2017). Regional dynamics of the birth rate and the effectiveness of demographic policy in Russia. Population (4): 4–18 (in Russian)].
  • Рыбаковский Л.Л., Хасаев Г.Р., Кожевникова Н.И. (2018). Применение понятий «результативность» и «эффективность» в сфере демографии // Вестник Самарского государственного экономического университета (6): 38–48. [Rybakovsky L.L., Khasaev G.R., Kozhevnikova N.I. (2018). Application of the concepts of “effectiveness” and “efficiency” in the field of demography. Bulletin of the Samara State University of Economics (6): 38–48 (in Russian)].
  • Саградов А.А. (2000). Качество населения: концепция и измерение // Человеческий капитал в России в 1990-х годах (5). [Sagradov A.A. (2000). Population quality: Concept and measurement. Human capital in Russia in the 1990s (5) (in Russian)].
  • Саградов А.А. (2006). Воспроизводство населения и социальный капитал // Вестник Московского университета. Серия 6. Экономика (5): 15–31. [Sagradov A.A. (2006). Population reproduction and social capital. Bulletin of the Moscow University. Series 6. Economics (5): 15–31 (in Russian)].
  • Тамбовцев В.Л. (2008). Бюджетирование, ориентированное на результаты: какие именно? // Общественные финансы (17): 22–32. [Tambovtsev V.L. (2008). Results-based budgeting: which ones exactly? Public Finance (17): 22–32 (in Russian)].
  • Хасанова Р.Р., Зубаревич Н.В. (2021). Рождаемость, смертность населения и положение регионов в начале второй волны пандемии // Экономическое развитие России 28(1): 77–86. [Khasanova R.R., Zubarevich N.V. (2021). Birth rate, population mortality and the situation of the regions at the beginning of the second wave of the pandemic. Economic Development of Russia 28(1): 77–86 (in Russian)].
  • Шаститко А., Овчинников М. (2008). Бюджетный процесс в стратегиях социально-экономического развития (постановка проблемы) // Вопросы экономики (3): 134–151. [Shastitko A., Ovchinnikov M. (2008). The budget process in the strategies of socio-economic development (problem statement). Voprosy ekonomiki (3): 134–151 (in Russian)].
  • Barro R.J., Becker G.S. (1989). Fertility choice in a model of economic growth. Econometrica 57(2): 481–501.
  • Bogenschneider K., Corbett T.J. (2010). Family policy: Becoming a field of inquiry and subfield of social policy. Journal of Marriage and Family 72(3): 783–803.
  • Boldrin M., De Nardi M., Jones L.E. (2015). Fertility and social security. Journal of Demographic Economics 81(3): 261–299.
  • Boyd D., Crawford K. (2012). Critical questions for big data, Information. Communication and Society 15(5): 662–679.
  • Cervellati M., Sunde U. (2015). The effect of life expectancy on education and population dynamics. Empirical Economics 48(4): 1445–1478.
  • Daly M., Ferragina E. (2018). Family policy in high-income countries: Five decades of development. Journal of European Social Policy 28(3): 255–270.
  • Fernihough A. (2017). Human capital and the quantity–quality trade-off during the demographic transition. Journal of Economic Growth 22(1): 35–65.
  • Heintz J., Folbre N. (2021). Endogenous growth, population dynamics, and economic structure: Long-run macroeconomics when demography matters. Feminist Economics: 1–19.
  • Hoynes H.W., Patel A.J. (2018). Effective policy for reducing poverty and inequality? The Earned Income Tax Credit and the distribution of income. Journal of Human Resources 53(4): 859–890.
  • Kabeer N. (2016). Gender equality, economic growth, and women’s agency: The “endless variety” and “monotonous similarity” of patriarchal constraints. Feminist Economics 22(1): 295–321.
  • Kitchin R. (2013). Big Data and human geography: Opportunities, challenges and risks. Dialogues in Human Geography 3(3): 262–267.
  • Liebman J.B. (2013). Building on Recent Advances in Evidence-Based Policymaking. The Hamilton Project: Brookings Institute.
  • Mason A., Lee R., Jiang J.X. (2016). Demographic dividends, human capital, and saving. The Journal of the Economics of Ageing 7: 106–122.
  • Mayer-Schonberger V., Cukier K. (2013). Big Data: A Revolution that Will Change How We Live, Work and Think. London: John Murray.
  • Miller H.J. (2010). The data avalanche is here. shouldn’t we be digging? Journal of Regional Science 50(1): 181–201.
  • Noman Z. (2008). Performance budgeting in the United Kingdom. OECD Journal on Budgeting 8(1): 1–16.
  • Ooms T. (2019). The evolution of family policy: Lessons learned, challenges, and hopes for the future. Journal of Family Theory & Review 11(1): 18–38.
  • Strom D. (2012). Big data makes things better. Slashdot (http://slashdot.org/topic/bi/bigdata-makesthings-better/ – accessed on July 29 2021).
  • Tiloka de S., Tenreyro S. (2017). Population control policies and fertility convergence. Journal of Economic Perspectives 31(4): 205–228.
  • Tiloka de S., Tenreyro S. (2020). The fall in global fertility: A quantitative model. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 12(3): 77–109.
  • Van Lancker W., Ghysels J., Cantillon B. (2015). The impact of child benefits on single mother poverty: Exploring the role of targeting in 15 European countries. International Journal of Social Welfare 24(3): 210–222.
  • Van Lancker W., Van Mechelen N. (2015). Universalism under siege? Exploring the association between targeting, child benefits and child poverty across 26 countries. Social Science Research 50: 60–75.
  • Wilson B., Dyson T. (2017). Democracy and the demographic transition. Democratization 24(4): 594–612.
Publisher: Southern Federal University
Founder: Southern Federal University
ISSN: 2073-6606