Overview of the Russian methods of competences, labor demand and supply forecasting
E.V. MIKHALKINA
Doctor of Economics (DSc), Professor, Southern Federal University, Rostov-on-Don, Russia
Doctor of Economics (DSc), Professor, Southern Federal University, Rostov-on-Don, Russia
L.S. SKACHKOVA
Candidate of Economics (PhD), Associate Professor, Southern Federal University, Rostov-on-Don, Russia
Candidate of Economics (PhD), Associate Professor, Southern Federal University, Rostov-on-Don, Russia
TERRA ECONOMICUS, 2014, Vol. 12 (no. 4),
p. 59-67
The article analyzes the factors that have a significant influence on the direction of research in the field of forecasting demand and supply of labor and competences. The authors give a detailed description of the effects of such factors as economic growth; growth of labor productivity; demographic crisis; controversy in the field of training; structural imbalance of supply and demand; new vectors of development of the Russian economy; the development of new forms of employment; the institutional development of the middle class; geopolitical risks. In addition, the paper presents a classification of the existing methods of forecasting of labor and skills demand and supply in Russia.
Keywords: labor market; forecasting methods; demand and supply of labor and competences
References:
- ConsultantPlus (2012). The Order of the Ministry of Health Care and Social Development of the Russian Federation from February 29, 2012 no. 178n «On approval of the Methodics of workforce balance forecast development». Available at: http://www.consultant.ru/document/cons_doc_LAW_126925/. (In Russian.)
- ConsultantPlus (2014). Presidential Decree of April 16, 2014 no. 249 «On the National Council under the President of the Russian Federation for Vocational Qualifications». Available at: http://www.consultant.ru/document/cons_doc_LAW_161826/. (In Russian.)
- ConsultantPlus (undated). Draft resolution «On the experiment in 2014–2016 to monitor the employment of graduates from higher education institutions». Available at: http://base.consultant.ru/cons/cgi/online.cgi?req=doc;base=PNPA;n=4519. (In Russian.)
- Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation (2013). Russia in figures. 2013. Moscow: Rosstat. (In Russian.)
- Garant.ru (undated). Explanatory note «On the Forecast for the Socioeconomic Development of the Russian Federation up to 2030». Available at: http://ivo.garant.ru/SESSION/PILOT/main.htm. (In Russian.)
- Kazakova Yu.М. (2012). The impact of preschool children care costs on female labor supply. Preprint WP15/2012/04. Moscow: The Publishing House of the Higher School of Economics, 76 p. (In Russian.)
- Lyashok V.Yu. and Rochshin S.Yu. (2012). The impact of health on labor supply of older workers. Preprint WP15/2012/05. Moscow: The Publishing House of the Higher School of Economics, 64 p. (In Russian.)
- Mikhalkina Е.V. and Skachkova L.S. (2012). Adaptation Model of Youth to the Labour Market Conditions. Kadrovik, no. 3, pp. 64–72. (In Russian.)
- Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation (2013). Forecast for the Socioeconomic Development of the Russian Federation up to 2030. Available at: http://economy.gov.ru/minec/activity/sections/macro/prognoz/doc20130325_06. (In Russian.)
- Rochshin S.Yu. and Slesareva А.А. (2012). Hiring the younger workers in the Russian labor market. Preprint WP15/2012/05. Moscow: The Publishing House of the Higher School of Economics, 35 p. (In Russian.)
- Sigova S.V. (2009). Completion of a staff shortage on a labor market of the Russian Federation. Petrozavodsk: Publishing of the Petrozavodsk State University. (In Russian.)
- Sigova S.V., Serebryakov А.G. and Luksha P.О. (2013). Creating the list of competences in demand: first Russian experience. Lifelong Education: the XXI century, vol. 1, no. 1 (1), pp. 61–71, DOI:10.15393/j5.art.2013.1946. (In Russian.)
- Smirnykh L.I. (2012). Contingent labor in Russia: to be or not to be? Preprint WP15/2012/02. Moscow: The Publishing House of the Higher School of Economics. (In Russian.)
- The Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation (2013). State programme: Education Development, 2013–2020. Available at: http://Минобрнауки РФ/документы/3409. (In Russian.)
- World Bank (2014). Confidence Crisis Exposes Economic Weakness. Russia Economic Report, no. 31, March. Moscow: World Bank. Available at: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/17793.
- Gurtov V.А., Pitukhin Е.А., Serova L.М. and Sigova S.V. (2010). Forecasting of Labor Market Demand Dynamics on Different Stages of Crisis in Russian Economics. Studies on Russian Economic Development, vol. 21, no. 2, pp. 169–179, DOI: 10.1134/S1075700710020073.
- Korovkin А.G. (2011). The problems of labor supply and labor demand adjustment on the Russian labor market. Studies on Russian Economic Development, vol. 22, no. 2, pp. 177–190, DOI: 10.1134/S1075700711020079.
- Korovkin А.G. (2013). Employment and labor market dynamics in the Russian federation until 2030. Studies on Russian Economic Development, vol. 24, no. 4, pp. 353–365, DOI: 10.1134/S1075700713040059.
- Korovkin А.G., Dolgova I.N. and Korolev I.B. (2011). Consequences of the inertial development of the labor potential in the Russian Federation. Studies on Russian Economic Development, vol. 22, no. 6, pp. 637–649, DOI: 10.1134/S1075700711060062.
Publisher: Southern Federal University
Founder: Southern Federal University
ISSN: 2073-6606
Founder: Southern Federal University
ISSN: 2073-6606