ЮФУ
ул. М. Горького, 88, к. 211
г.Ростов-на-Дону, Россия
344002
+7 (863) 250-59-54
Адрес электронной почты защищен от спам-ботов. Для просмотра адреса в вашем браузере должен быть включен Javascript.
Адрес электронной почты защищен от спам-ботов. Для просмотра адреса в вашем браузере должен быть включен Javascript.

TERRA ECONOMICUS

Определяющие факторы международных резервов в развивающихся странах


TERRA ECONOMICUS, , Том 21 (номер 3),
Цитирование: Foo Y.S., Chin L., Chen К.S., Allayarov P. (2023). The determinants of internationalreserves in developing countries. Terra Economicus21(3), 133–142. DOI: 10.18522/2073-6606-2023-21-3-133-142

Данное исследование мотивировано резким увеличением объема международных резервов в развивающихсястранах в последние годы. Мы изучили факторы, определяющие международные резервы в развивающихсястранах. В исследовании были использованы два подхода: с точки зрения меркантилистского и с учётомпредупредительного мотива, влияющего на спрос на международные резервы. Проанализированыпанельные данные по 21 развивающейся стране за период с 2003 по 2015 гг. Результаты показали, чтотакие параметры как объем торговли и обменный курс, рассматриваемые в рамках меркантилистскогоподхода, являются положительными факторами, определяющими международные резервы. С точки зрениямотива предосторожности, экспансионистская денежно-кредитная политика с увеличением денежноймассы и снижением внутренней процентной ставки будет способствовать увеличению международныхрезервов в странах. Однако растущий государственный долг приведет к сокращению международныхрезервов. Результаты показывают, что нефтяной шок 2013–2015 гг., который сопровождался самымбольшим падением цен на нефть в истории, отразился на сокращении международных резервов. Намипредложены некоторые рекомендации, такие как диверсификация и замена международных резервов.Сотрудничество между странами-экспортерами нефти важно для стабилизации нефтяного рынка и ценна нефть, чтобы избежать истощения международных резервов.


Ключевые слова: международные резервы; меркантилистский мотив; предупредительный мотив; нефтяной шок

Список литературы:
  • Aizenman, J., Hutchison, M. (2012). Exchange market pressure and absorption by international reserves: Emerging markets and fear of reserve loss during the 2008–2009 crisis. Journal of International Money and Finance 31(1), 1076–1091.
  • Aizenman, J., Lee, J. (2007). International reserves: precautionary versus mercantilist views, theory and evi- dence. Open Economies Review 18(2), 191–214.
  • Aizenman, J., Lee, J. (2008). Financial versus monetary mercantilism: long run view of large international reserves hoarding. World Economy 31(5), 593–611.
  • Aizenman, J., Marion, N. (2004). International reserve holdings with sovereign risk and costly tax collection. The Economic Journal 114(497), 569–591.
  • Aizenman, J., Riera-Crichton, D. (2008). Real exchange rate and international reserves in an era of growing financial and trade integration. The Review of Economics and Statistics 90(4), 812–815.
  • Aizenman, J., Sun, Y. (2012). The financial crisis and sizable international reserves depletion: From “fear of floating” to the “fear of losing international reserves”? International Review of Economics and Finance 24, 250–269.
  • Aizenman, J., Jinjarak, Y., Park, D. (2011). International reserves and swap lines: Substitutes or complements? International Review of Economics and Finance 20(1), 5–18.
  • Aizenman, J., Lee, Y., Rhee, Y. (2017). International reserves management and capital mobility in a volatile world: Policy consideration and a case study of Korea. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 21, 1–15.
  • Bacchetta, P., Benhima, K., Kalantzis, Y. (2013). Capital controls with international reserve accumulation: Can this be optimal? American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 5(3), 229–262.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. (1988). Oil price shocks and stability of the demand for international reserves. Journal of Macroeconomics 10(4), 633–641.
  • Beck, R., Weber, S. (2011). Should larger reserve holdings be more diversified? International Finance 14(3), 415–444.
  • Bianchi, J., Hatchondo, J., Martinez, L. (2016). International reserves and rollover risk. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Working Papers 735.
  • Blanchard, O., Faruqee, H., Das, M. (2010). The initial impact of the crisis on emerging market countries. Brook- ings Papers on Economic Activity, Spring, pp. 263–323.
  • Burnside, C., Eichenbaum, M., Rebelo, S. (2001). Prospective deficits and the Asian currency crisis. Journal of Political Economy 109(6), 1155–1197.
  • Burnside, C., Eichenbaum, M., Rebelo, S. (2006). Government finance in the wake of currency crises. Journal of Monetary Economics 53(3), 401–440.
  • Calvo, G., Izquierdo, A., Loo-Kung, R. (2012). Optimal holdings of international reserves: Self-insurance against sudden stop. NBER Working Papers 18219.
  • Cheung, Y., Ito, H. (2009). A cross-country empirical analysis of international reserves. International Economic Journal 23(4), 447–481.
  • Chin, L., Azali, M., Matthews, K. (2007a). The monetary approach to exchange rate determination for Malaysia. Applied Financial Economics Letters 3(2), 91–94.
  • Chin, L., Azali, M., Yusop, Z., Yusoff, M. (2007b). The Monetary Model of Exchange Rate: Evidence from the Phil- ippines. Applied Economics Letters 14(13), 993–997.
  • Chin, L., Azali, M. (2010). Currency linkages among ASEAN. Singapore Economic Review 55(3), 459–470.
  • Choi, W., Taylor, A. (2017). Precaution versus mercantilism: Reserve accumulation, capital controls, and the real exchange rate. NBER Working papers 23341.
  • Delatte, A.-L., Fouquau, J. (2012). What drove the massive hoarding of international reserves in emerging econ- omies? A time-varying approach. Review of International Economics 20(1), 164–176.
  • Dominguez, K., Hashimoto, Y., Ito, T. (2012). International reserves and the global financial crisis. Journal of International Economics 88(2), 388–406.
  • Dooley, M., Folkerts Landau, D., Garber, P. (2004). The revived Bretton Woods system. International Journal of Finance & Economics 9(4), 307–313.
  • Durdu, C., Mendoza, E., Terrones, M. (2009). Precautionary demand for foreign assets in sudden stop economies: An assessment of the new mercantilism. Journal of Development Economics 89(2), 194–209.
  • Ghosh, A., Ostry, J., Tsangarides, C. (2014). Accounting for emerging market countries’ international reserves: Are Pacific Rim countries different? Journal of International Money and Finance 49, 52–82.
  • Ghosh, A., Ostry, J., Tsangarides, C. (2017). Shifting motives: Explaining the buildup in official reserves in emerging markets since the 1980s. IMF Economic Review 65, 308–364.
  • He, D., Luk, P. (2017). A model of Chinese capital account liberalization. Macroeconomic Dynamics 21(8), 1902– 1934.
  • Hur, S., Kondo, I. (2016). A theory of rollover risk, sudden stops, and foreign reserves. Journal of International Economics 103, 44–63.
  • Jeanne, O. (2007). International reserves in emerging market countries: Too much of a good thing? Brookings papers on Economic activity, 2007(1), 1–79.
  • Jeanne, O. (2013). Capital account policies and the real exchange rate. NBER International Seminar on Macro- economics 9(1), 7–42. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.
  • Jeanne, O., Ranciere, R. (2011). The optimal level of international reserves for emerging market countries: A new formula and some applications. The Economic Journal 121(555), 905–930.
  • Kyin, T., Chin, L., Habibullah, M. (2013). Monetary policy and exchange market pressure in Malaysia. Pertanika Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities 21(S), 29–46.
  • Lane, P., Burke, D. (2001). The empirics of foreign reserves. Open Economies Review 12, 423–434.
  • Lane, P., Milesi-Ferretti, G. (2002). External wealth, the trade balance, and the real exchange rate. Europ. Econ. Rev. 46, 1049–1071.
  • Lane, P., Milesi-Ferretti, G. (2004). The transfer problem revisited: Net foreign assets and real exchange rates. Rev. Econ. Stat. 86, 841–857.
  • Lau, E., Yong, J., Pasca, P. (2018). Tracing exchange rate volatility in Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam (CLMV). Electronic Journal of Applied Statistical Analysis 11(1), 168–181.
  • Lee, S., Luk, P. (2018). The Asian Financial Crisis and international reserve accumulation: A robust control ap- proach. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 90, 284–309.
  • Nor, E., Azali, M., Law, S. (2008). International reserves, current account imbalance and external debt: Evidence from Malaysia. IIUM Journal of Economics and Management 16(1), 47–75.
  • Nor, E., Azali, M., Law, S. (2011). International reserves, current account imbalance and short term external debt: a comparative study. International Journal of Economics and Finance 3(4), 83–94.
  • Obstfeld, M., Shambaugh, J., Taylor, A. (2009). Financial instability, reserves, and central bank swap lines in the panic of 2008. American Economic Review 99(2), 480–486.
  • Obstfeld, M., Shambaugh, J., Taylor, A. (2010). Financial stability, the trilemma, and international reserves. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 2(2), 57–94.
  • Pina, G. (2017). International reserves and global interest rates. Journal of International Money and Finance 74, 371–385.
  • Qian, X., Steiner, A. (2017). International reserves and the maturity of external debt. Journal of International Money and Finance 73, 399–418.
  • Ramachandran, M., Srinivasan, N. (2007). Asymmetric exchange rate intervention and international reserve accumulation in India. Economics Letters 94(2), 259–265.
  • Rodrik, D. (2008). The real exchange rate and economic growth. Brookings papers on economic activity, 2008(2), pp. 365–412.
  • Saha, A., Biswas, S. (2014). Macroeconomic fundamentals and exchange rate volatility during the floating ex- change rate regime in India. International Journal of Economics and Management 8(1), 10–39.
  • Schröder, M. (2017). Mercantilism and China’s hunger for international reserves. China Economic Review 42, 15–33.
  • Seghezza, E., Morelli, P., Pittaluga, G. (2017). Reserve accumulation and exchange rate policy in China: The authoritarian elite’s aim of political survival. European Journal of Political Economy 47, 163–174.
  • Sula, O. (2011). Demand for international reserves in developing nations: A quantile regression approach. Jour- nal of International Money and Finance 30(5), 764–777.
  • Taguchi, H., Nataraj, G., Sahoo, P. (2011). Monetary autonomy in selected Asian economies: The role of interna- tional reserves. Journal of Asian Economics 22(6), 471–482.
  • Wu, P., Lee, C. (2018). The non-linear impact of monetary policy on international reserves: macroeconomic variables nexus. Empirica 45(9), 165–185.
Издатель: Южный Федеральный Университет
Учредитель: Южный федеральный университет
ISSN: 2073-6606