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TERRA ECONOMICUS

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  • Prospects for Russia’s demographic expansion: Economics, institutions, and culture

Prospects for Russia’s demographic expansion: Economics, institutions, and culture


TERRA ECONOMICUS, , Vol. 21 (no. 2),

In 2022 Russia has entered into a global confrontation with the collective West. Even now there is a strategic shortage of Russiaʼs economic resources, including human resources. This article considers the issue of possible demographic expansion on the part of Russia to ensure its geopolitical and civilizational positions. We built two econometric models to link population growth to three groups of factors – economy, institutions and culture. These models present two demographic scenarios – the mode of simple reproduction of the population and the mode of demographic expansion. To ensure simple reproduction, all other conditions being equal, it is enough for the country to increase the level of welfare of the population by 7,2% compared to 2021. Demographic expansion regime, according to which Russia will increase its population to 300 million people in 30 years, implies revolutionary transformations in terms of creating institutional stability, restoring traditional family values and implementing large-scale economic modernization. In particular, the level of per capita GDP should increase by a maximum of 245,4% relative to the level of 2021. Comparison of the model constructed with empirical data shows that the required changes are not unrealizable. The conclusion that the strategy of demographic expansion is fraught with a final cultural turn of Russia from the West to the East is substantiated. Arguments against the traditional notion that Russiaʼs territory is unsuitable for comfortable human habitation are considered. We argue that in the context of global warming and geographical rotation between countries, such ideological clichés prove their inconsistency.
Citation: Balatsky E.V., Ekimova N.A. (2023). Prospects for Russia’s demographic expansion: Economics, institutions, and culture. Terra Economicus 21(2), 23–37 (in Russian). DOI: 10.18522/2073-6606-2023-21-2-23-37
Acknowledgment: The article is prepared within the state assignment of the Government of the Russian Federation to the Financial University for 2023 on the topic “Socio-economic development in the fundamental transformation of systems era”


Keywords: demography; fertility; population; public policy; modeling; expansion

JEL codes: J11

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Publisher: Southern Federal University
Founder: Southern Federal University
ISSN: 2073-6606