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Policy of import substitution: a trial intimate analysis

TERRA ECONOMICUS, , Vol. 14 (no. 1),
p. 125-127

Famous foreign institutionalist J. Meinstring maintained friendly relations with the author of an early concept of import substitution, Argentine economist Raul Prebisch. At that, Meinstring objected to the postulates Prebisch had put forward concerning the priority of self-reliance and active state support of the national engineering industry. Published for the first time in Russian, Meinstring’s note showing his brilliant knowledge of political economy, refers to the original interpretation of the import substitution process, which has not lost one iota of relevance today.

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Decision-making criteria. What fairy tales were read to entrepreneurs in their childhood? What is the optimal strategy of choosing the wife? What does the story of the three little pigs teach the economist?

TERRA ECONOMICUS, , Vol. 14 (no. 1),

J. Meynstring began one of his speeches (Oklahoma, 1929) with the outstanding words: «Do you think that economics is a dismal science? You just haven’t learnt the chemistry!» To continue the great Californian economist’s traditions, I introduce you a course of popular science lectures of economics, which I have given in Novosibirsk in last ten years. The fifth lecture is devoted to learning decisions-making criteria. It proposes simple interpretation of the base decision-making under uncertainty and decision-making under risk. At the end of the lecture there is a popular explanation of the basic rules of determine the probabilities used in the analysis of decision-making under risk. You will know how the choice of criterion (procedure) of decision-making can influence the outcome. What is the mistake of parents that build a worship of overly cautious fairy tale characters? You’ll understand that many fairy tales, as part of sociocultural adaptation mechanism, forms a rejection of risk, negative attitude to losses and forms pessimism. You’ll explore the assumption, why there are so few entrepreneurs. Finally, you’ll know who was the most rational in the tale about the three little pigs. You will be offered the optimal strategy of searching a wife, a secretary and an employee. You’ll learn what mental mistakes we make, when we appreciate the probabilities. You’ll know, how to use these assessments, so they do not become a reason of great financial losses. You’ll ponder over the role of randomness in your life. And at the end of the lecture you will get to know the evidence of the rational character of the faith that was proposed by the famous mathematician Blaise Pascal.

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Methodological institutionalism as a new principle of complex social systems' analysis at meso-level

TERRA ECONOMICUS, , Vol. 14 (no. 1),

This inquiry emphasizes the importance of the meso-level of complex social systems analysis. It is known that most frequently two levels of analysis are presented in economics and social science – micro- and macro-. Micro-level requires consideration of the behaviour of individual actors, such as homo economicus, firms, households and others. At the macro-level societies and economies are presented as holistic social systems with their inherent laws of development. For the micro-level of social complex systems analysis the principle of methodological individualism is particularly relevant, whereas the holism principle is significant for the macro-level. Discussion around these two basic principles has been one of the crucial points in sociology and economics for many years. However, the development of the institutional approach in economics and sociology, especially in the last decade, focuses the attention of researchers more and more on the examination of the meso-level of complex social systems. We understand the meso-level to be a space of rules, regulations, agreements, etc. – in other words, institutions in the broad sense of the term. On the one hand, these institutions are created as a result of joint activity of micro-level actors. On the other hand, institutions serve as frameworks for their performance. Further, institutions are the mechanisms which generate macrostructures with their own characteristics. An overview of current Russian and foreign publications, in the field of neoinstitutional economics and neo-institutional sociology, shows that the meso-level of complex social systems requires a new analytical principle, namely, the principle of methodological institutionalism. The essence of methodological institutionalism is to analyze and explain social phenomena in terms of operations and changes in institutional structures that form the meso-level of complex social systems. Thus, to a set of traditional analytical principles such as methodological individualism and holism, it is proposed to add a new principle of methodological institutionalism.

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Justice and ecology: from a perspective of political philosophy

TERRA ECONOMICUS, , Vol. 14 (no. 1),

The paper analyzes the crucial issue of ecology from the perspective of political philosophy, indicating that the high speed of development of industrial civilization has accelerated the improvement of productivity on one hand, and reconstructed peoples’ consumption demand and ability on the other hand. People immersed in their selfindulgence in the process of practices in changing nature, the activities of whom inevitably resulted in the alienation of human being and the over-exploitation of ecology. Ecological Marxism uses the theory of justice to explore the fundamental relation of capitalist system and ecological crisis, redefining the dual value dimensions of human and nature so as to construct a new framework of social justice. By analyzing ecological justice with the dimensions of technology, economy and politics, a conclusion has been reached on the necessary underlying correlation between the capitalist system and ecological crisis– the inherent and internal contradiction within capitalism would consequentially endanger the construction of the principles on ecological justice. Therefore, it is in urgent need to create a comprehensive new pattern of justice, requiring an overall consideration on ecological, economic and social justice to reform the existing political system and world order. Meanwhile, it is necessary to evoke the transformation of the values, so as to establish an ecological civilization in accordance with the principle of justice, as well as the harmonious coexistence between human and nature.

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Path dependence in context of evolutionary theory of economic change

TERRA ECONOMICUS, , Vol. 14 (no. 1),

The dominance of Path Dependency theory in Russian social science and publicist writings results in the underestimation of the innovative role of individual creativity and has a hampering effect on the development of society. The above-named theory is based on the QWERTY-effect of wrong technological choice – the idea which was extended by its creator Paul David to apply to the evolution of institutions. In Russia such an approach has been adopted by authors who consider the «Russian Path» as an indication of the unbridgeable civilizational schism between East and West and define the former as the domination of the state coupled with deprivation of individuals’ rights. The «Path» theory is used by some politicians in order to provide a scientific rationale for the conservative ideology under which the notion of the «Russian Path» includes defensive mindset, territorial sacredness, religion as spiritualization of the state, the state as protector of the faith, a sense of a distinct way and a unique mission in the world, and cautious attitude towards West. The author proposes the concept of the «innovator effect» which reflects the fundamental role that creative personality has come to play in innovationdriven development of institutions in the post-industrial society. What is crucial here is the individual’s moral responsibility for the destiny of the society. Thus, the «innovator effect» concept can help re-establish the balance between inertial and innovative factors of development; show the role of free human beings as a source of progress and decrease the level of civic apathy prevalent in the society.

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Methodological aspects of the analysis of economic inequality: the soviet and post-soviet problems

TERRA ECONOMICUS, , Vol. 14 (no. 1),

The relevance of the study of economic inequality as the most important problems of political economyis emphasized, in economic, sociological and political aspects. The author discusses the hypothesis by Simon Kuznets who won the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences for the impact of economic growth on the non-uniformity of distribution, based on an analysis of historical dynamics of income inequality.The article summarizes the methodological approaches to the study of the historical dynamics of inequality in income distribution, relationship between economic inequality and economic growth. It is shown that in the middle of the XX century, the concept of the natural cycle of inequality was dominated. However, there were not consensus in more recent studies about whether economic growth can be accompanied by a decrease, increase or preservation of inequality, while the growth of inequality may occur against a background of economic downturn. Special attention is paid to the comparison of the liberal economic approach, according to which inequality is a key tool for economic growth: the greater the inequality, the greater the economic growth – and the opposite point of view, which other researchers follow, viewing the inequality as a constraint for economic growth. The urgency of the problem of inequality in the Soviet period and its study is shown. The researchers of that time faced with the problem of differences between the real life and officially provided data. A significant contribution to the development of methodological base for political economy studies of inequality was made by J.A. Kronrod and A.P. Butenko. Their resultsserved as the impetus for reformatory ideas about the economic theory of socialism, which are of importance today as well. Empirical data showing inequality trends in the Soviet and post-Soviet periods are provided. It is shown that the market reforms in post-Soviet Russia has resultedin excessive income differentiation of the population and, as a consequence – sharp social polarization of society. It is concluded that at the present time in Russia the issue at stake is not income inequality as such, but rather itstransformation into particularly dangerous form of social and economic inequality. Unjustified excessive inequality of incomesamong the Russians is one of the major factors constraining economic growth, which is closely related to the value of consumer demand.

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Towards the theory of monetary degradation, or Post Keynesian analysis of monetary problems of the Russian transitional economy in 1991–1998

TERRA ECONOMICUS, , Vol. 14 (no. 1),

The paper develops Post Keynesian theory of endogenous money and applies it to analysis of changes in monetary circulation in the Russian transitional economy in 1991–1998. These changes were characterized by displacement of bank deposits by cash, barter and inter-firm arrears as special means of payment. Author treats this process as «monetary degradation» because it created additional barriers to financing investment, made for criminalization and contributed to cost-push inflation. All this could be ruinous for creation of monetary capitalist economy in Russia. The main cause of monetary degradation is associated with inability of the government to enforce effectively contracts due to sharp institutional changes generated by shock therapy policy. The paper also focuses on the «legacies» of monetary degradation which matter at the present time. These are low coefficient of monetization, large M0/M2 ratio and absence of such monetary aggregates as M3 and M4. All these phenomena are the barriers to rapid and steady economic growth not based on rising oil prices. So, money structure can be considered as both institutional feature and macroeconomic variable.

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Political economy and economic policy. Market. State. Society

TERRA ECONOMICUS, , Vol. 14 (no. 1),

The article reveals the peculiarities of the foundations of social and economic policy on the basis of political and economic approach to the analysis of economic practices. Highlighted by the authors potential uses of political economy for Russia’s development strategy may be applicable to other countries, given the fact that the Russian system is one of the typical examples of the semi-peripheral-type of late capitalism economy and one of the important players in the BRICS group of countries, unlike other members of this union have a number of peculiarities. The authors deduce the need for systemic social and economic policy from the production relations system, key units of which are relations of coordination (the system of resource allocation), property relations, the relationship of reproduction and the block of the social parameters of the economy. Particular attention in the article is given to policy measures in the field of two blocks of production relations system - the relations of coordination, manifested in the ratio of market and planned regulation, and property relations. The article shows that in the field of socio-economic policies all seem narrow professional and even technical issues ultimately rest on the fundamental social problems. Argued that a strict «binding» of the basic units of social and economic policy to the production relations system structure will make economic policy more comprehensive and effective. The importance of integrity and systemic social and economic policy is emphasized in the article, as the inconsistency of the economic, financial, social, and so on state policy and Russia the dominance of short-term measures of financial policy actually presented in modern Russiam economy negates all other efforts of the state, even if they were aimed at the positive objectives. The authors also stress the importance of the question of what economic actor’s interests are expressed by one or the other economic policies, and provide their possible answer to this question.

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Whether soviet economy needs to be protected by the crafty figures?

TERRA ECONOMICUS, , Vol. 14 (no. 1),

The article addresses the discussion resumed by S. Dzarasov on the estimates for macroeconomic data on the Soviet economy dynamics. In particular, the estimates by CIA (USA), CSB (USSR) and author’s own calculations are compared. The statement made by S. Dzarasov concerning the CIA’s confirmation of the CSB data on the dynamics of the Soviet economy is criticized. Proximity of the author’s estimates to the CIA’s ones is shown, as well as the striking differences of those compared with the USSR’s CSB estimates. A comparison is made between various indicators, including those most comparable, with the exception of the services sector. The shortcomings of the CSB’s estimates of the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators and indices of production in separate industries of the Soviet economy are analyzed, showing extensive use of exaggerated cost data by the Soviet statistics, which involved a hidden growth of wholesale and retail prices. The author demonstrates that many defects of the Soviet statistics are retained, and sometimes even multiplied, by the Russian macroeconomic statistics. Shortcomings of the CIA’s methodology to estimate the USSR’s GDP growth are revealed, resulted in exaggeration of its dynamics. The article uncovers the reasons why the Education Commission of the US Congress was established to assess the CIA’s studies on the Soviet economy. The author’s estimates of the economic growth are shown as quite consistent with the USSR’s success during the Great Patriotic War and in 1950–1960s. In turn, S. Dzarasov’s arguments concerning American experts’ assessment reveal their inconsistency, and some of them have never engaged in the studies on the USSR’s macroeconomic statistics.

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Searching for the «non-economic» production

TERRA ECONOMICUS, , Vol. 14 (no. 1),

An interesting topic is included in the agenda of the Second Saint-Petersburg Economic Congress (SPEC 2016, March 22) – «Foresight «Russia»: The New Production for The New Economy». Such an ambiguous wording makes it reasonable to turn to great Cuvier’s ability to reconstruct a form of extinct animal using a shinbone. Later on, a famous anthropologist Gerasimov demonstrated a talent of the «restaurateur of the history», as he was able to recreate the ancestors’ portrait using a fragment of jaw. Reincarnation of the method that had been almost forgotten is of increasing importance for the Russian social science, in particular, for economic scientific conferences, essential for a collective search for the truth, – which seems today strange and archaic genre. The author justifies the necessity for the «Cuvier method» as the methodological element of economic research, arguing that its wider implications can provide efficiency of a preliminary scientific assessment, in particular, for the research grants, that are the institutional form for team research. However, its use today is bounded by the methodological culture of practicing economists, in particular, due to their low competence in political economy. The author pays special attention to the interdisciplinary character of the «Cuvier method», since its implementation depends on complex approach: analysis of context, historical and subject limitations, conceptual fruitfulness, latent comparative analysis, as well as the assessment of the possibility of an econometric approach. Actually, this refers to projections of the results of a proposed research project (including its specific forms – congress, conference, webinar) according to its key words («hashtags»), which serve as the “Cuvier’s shinbone”. The article aims to popularize the method among the professional community of economists.

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