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TERRA ECONOMICUS

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  • Models for forecasting the emergence of innovative and digital ecosystems in border regions of Russia

Models for forecasting the emergence of innovative and digital ecosystems in border regions of Russia


TERRA ECONOMICUS, , Vol. 22 (no. 3),

The article tackles the issues of emerging innovative and digital ecosystems in border regions of the Russian Federation in the context of recent challenges and strategic concerns. In border regions, ecosystems have a beneficial effect on regional the socio-economic development due to unique advantages of cooperation, complementarity and the ability to flexibly respond to geopolitical risks. The ecosystem approach focuses on the balance of interests of parties involved and the rational use of resources. The ecosystem product is a new value jointly created by actors with the support of regional institutions. The research problem is the insufficient study of the factors contributing to the transformation of ecosystems to innovative and digital types. In this regard, this article proposes logistic models to assess the probability of classifying ecosystems as innovative and digital ones, with regard to factors specific for the border economy. The database includes the parameters of 194 most representative ecosystems. Using a logistic regression analysis, we built the forecast models to predict the emergence of innovative and digital ecosystems. The characteristics of ecosystems and specific features related to their border location were used as indicators in the models. The findings show that the probability of innovative ecosystems emergence is positively affected by: industrialization, diversification, cooperation, innovative infrastructure, partnership with a regional university, and export to a border country. The emergence of a digital ecosystem is determined by innovation, diversification and infrastructure. Factors related to the border location do not have a significant impact on digital ecosystem emergence, since most of them are located near less developed neighboring countries.
Citation: Yakimova V.A. (2024). Models for forecasting the emergence of innovative and digital ecosystems in border regions of Russia. Terra Economicus 22(3), 96–114 (in Russian). DOI: 10.18522/2073-6606-2024-22-3-96-114
Acknowledgment: This article was prepared based on the results of research supported by the Russian Science Foundation № 23-28-00044 on the topic «Conceptual model of a regional entrepreneurial ecosystem in a digital environment». https://rscf.ru/en/project/23-28-00044/


Keywords: ecosystem border region; digital ecosystem; innovation ecosystem; entrepreneurial ecosystem; logistic regression

JEL codes: Р51, С51

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Publisher: Southern Federal University
Founder: Southern Federal University
ISSN: 2073-6606