Financial contagion from oil shocks during the pandemic: A cross-sector analysis
Marina Yu. Malkina
Lobachevsky State University of Nizhni Novgorod, Russia, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Lobachevsky State University of Nizhni Novgorod, Russia, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
TERRA ECONOMICUS, 2023, Vol. 21 (no. 2),
Financial contagion in a broad sense is a change in the links between markets during the period of exposure to external shocks. Having initially hit one market, the shock is transmitted through various channels (trading, financial, informational, etc.) to other markets. This paper addresses an underresearched issue of contagion effect in Russia resulting from oil shock during the COVID-19 pandemic. We used data on the inter-sessional return of Brent oil futures and 8 Moscow Exchange Sector Indices for the period from 1 January 2019 to 23 February 2022. We apply the method of moments, which includes four types of tests for the joint distribution of two assets returns: correlation and correcting for heteroskedasticity, coasymmetry, cokurtosis and covolatility. The shock period was identified using the sliding coefficient of variation in the return of oil futures and the MOEX Russia Index. The study confirmed the contagion of almost all sectors of the Russian economy during the acute phase of the pandemic. In this period, the transport and telecommunications industries were the most vulnerable to the oil shock, and the least vulnerable ones were metallurgy, chemistry, and energy. However, the calculation of the dynamic co-moments of returns showed that in the recovery period of the Russian economy, contagion continued – there was a change in the fundamental links between the sectors of the Russian economy and the oil market. In general, for the entire period covered by our research, the transport industry, as well as the oil and gas industry, energy and the consumer sector, were most affected. Metallurgy, the financial sector and the telecommunications industry turned out to be less sensitive to oil market shocks. Our findings can be helpful in strengthening the resilience of Russian economy to external shocks.
Citation: Malkina M.Yu. (2023). Financial contagion from oil shocks during the pandemic: A cross-sector analysis. Terra Economicus 21(2), 6–22 (in Russian). DOI: 10.18522/2073-6606- 2023-21-2-6-22
Acknowledgment: The study was supported by the Russian Science Foundation grant № 23-28-00453, https://rscf.ru/ project/23-28-00453/
Prospects for Russia’s demographic expansion: Economics, institutions, and culture
Evgeny V. Balatsky
Financial University; Central Economics and Mathematics Institute RAS (CEMI RAS), Moscow, Russia, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Financial University; Central Economics and Mathematics Institute RAS (CEMI RAS), Moscow, Russia, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Natalia A. Ekimova
Financial University, Moscow, Russia, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
TERRA ECONOMICUS, 2023, Vol. 21 (no. 2),
In 2022 Russia has entered into a global confrontation with the collective West. Even now there is a strategic shortage of Russiaʼs economic resources, including human resources. This article considers the issue of possible demographic expansion on the part of Russia to ensure its geopolitical and civilizational positions. We built two econometric models to link population growth to three groups of factors – economy, institutions and culture. These models present two demographic scenarios – the mode of simple reproduction of the population and the mode of demographic expansion. To ensure simple reproduction, all other conditions being equal, it is enough for the country to increase the level of welfare of the population by 7,2% compared to 2021. Demographic expansion regime, according to which Russia will increase its population to 300 million people in 30 years, implies revolutionary transformations in terms of creating institutional stability, restoring traditional family values and implementing large-scale economic modernization. In particular, the level of per capita GDP should increase by a maximum of 245,4% relative to the level of 2021. Comparison of the model constructed with empirical data shows that the required changes are not unrealizable. The conclusion that the strategy of demographic expansion is fraught with a final cultural turn of Russia from the West to the East is substantiated. Arguments against the traditional notion that Russiaʼs territory is unsuitable for comfortable human habitation are considered. We argue that in the context of global warming and geographical rotation between countries, such ideological clichés prove their inconsistency.
Citation: Balatsky E.V., Ekimova N.A. (2023). Prospects for Russia’s demographic expansion: Economics, institutions, and culture. Terra Economicus 21(2), 23–37 (in Russian). DOI: 10.18522/2073-6606-2023-21-2-23-37
Acknowledgment: The article is prepared within the state assignment of the Government of the Russian Federation to the Financial University for 2023 on the topic “Socio-economic development in the fundamental transformation of systems era”
Market entry in Russian regions: The impact of unemployment
Alexey Zazdravnykh
Lomonosov Moscow State University, Russia, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Lomonosov Moscow State University, Russia, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
TERRA ECONOMICUS, 2023, Vol. 21 (no. 2),
The paper is aimed at assessing the impact of unemployment on commercial firms’ entry in Russian regions. Despite the downward trend in the unemployment rate in 2005–2021 in 80 Russian regions, its abnormal growth is recorded under external and internal shocks during crisis periods. Given significant interregional differentiation, the average regional unemployment rate at 7% a quite high indicator. For 17 years, in most Russian regions newly established business experienced negative growth rates. I propose an econometric model with fixed regional effects, and show significant negative impact of the regional unemployment rate on new companies’ entry. The current low unemployment rate in Russia in 2023 (3,5%) is due to long-term trends, including decrease in working-age population, raised outputs by the military-industrial complex, migration processes, as well as the partial military mobilization of economically active population. Due to the disruption of production chains as a consequence of Russian market exits, the regional disproportions in the labor market, combined with related emerging trends, may negatively affect entrepreneurial activity and job creation. The anti-crisis program of the Russian Government in 2022 provides a framework for solving the current problems of supporting employment and stimulating entrepreneurship in the regions.
Citation: Zazdravnykh A. (2023). Market entry in Russian regions: The impact of unemployment. Terra Economicus 21(2), 38–54 (in Russian). DOI: 10.18522/2073-6606-2023-21-2-38-54
Silver production in Altai in the second half of the 18th and 19th centuries: The influence of global trends
Vitaly V. Vedernikov
Saint Petersburg Mining University, Russia, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Saint Petersburg Mining University, Russia, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
TERRA ECONOMICUS, 2023, Vol. 21 (no. 2),
The paper centers the silver production in Altai at the period of Empire as a part of the world industry, whereas the Siberic historiography considers it as only having no analogues phenomenon of the local history. The contributing statistics of world silver production and world silver and golden prices dynamic brings into sharp focus the place and role of Russia in the world silver industry at the New Age. The results of generalizing studies of classical German mining districts are arising quite in keeping with the rich factual material accumulated by Russian historiography of silver production in Altai and shed the light on common economical and production management trends of the epoch. The unity of the geological patterns of ore occurrence and the Saxon roots of the Altai industry provide a broad basis for a comparative analysis of the mineral resources economic use which were historically established in Freiberg, Upper Harz as well as Altai to make a credible conclusions. Such an organizational model of production as a mining district in Germany and then in Russia was formed during the period of feudalism and proved to be incompatible with capitalism of free competition. Therefore, the elimination of silver smelting production in Freiberg and Altai at the turn of the 19th and 20th centuries was due to general reasons, such as the fall in world prices for silver and the restructuring of non-ferrous metallurgy for the production of zinc, copper, lead and other non-ferrous metals.
Citation: Vedernikov V.V. (2023). Silver production in Altai in the second half of the 18th and 19th centuries: The influence of global trends. Terra Economicus 21(2), 55–67 (in Russian). DOI: 10.18522/2073-6606-2023-21-2-55-67
The drivers of the circular economy: Theory vs practice
Natalia Kosolapova
Southern Federal University, Rostov-on-Don, Russia, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Southern Federal University, Rostov-on-Don, Russia, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Lyudmila Matveeva
Southern Federal University, Rostov-on-Don, Russia, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Anastasia Nikitaeva
Southern Federal University, Rostov-on-Don, Russia, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Olga Chernova
Southern Federal University, Rostov-on-Don, Russia, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
TERRA ECONOMICUS, 2023, Vol. 21 (no. 2),
The circular economy has become a model that is able to respond, with rather high economic efficiency, to the challenges that a society faces. The principles of a circular economy do not expand rapidly, though. Our study deals with the key drivers for closed-loop cycle production, including innovation, investment, digitalization, new business ecosystems, and institutional framework. To quantify the effects of circular economy, we used three indicators: production and consumption waste; GRP energy intensity; GRP water intensity. Given these indicators, the regions of Russia were clustered. Further, the hypothesis was tested that the innovative activity of organizations, investment in fixed assets, and digital technologies used by business, are among the key drivers towards a circular economy. Since this research is an exploratory one, we apply the method of General Regression Models (GRM). Our findings did not confirm that the identified factors serve as the drivers for transitioning to a circular economy. We attribute the discrepancy between the results of literature review and empirical findings to the lack of reliable data, difficulties in measurement, the latent nature of related drivers, as well as the relatively short period of transition towards a more circular economy.
Citation: Kosolapova N., Matveeva L., Nikitaeva A., Chernova O. (2023). The drivers of the circular economy: Theory vs practice. Terra Economicus 21(2), 68–83 (in Russian). DOI: 10.18522/2073- 6606-2023-21-2-68-83
Acknowledgment: The research is supported by the Russian Science Foundation № 22-28-00050 at the Southern Federal University. https://rscf.ru/project/22-28-00050/
Owners and employees of Skolkovo resident companies: An empirical analysis
Anna V. Lozhnikova
Tomsk State University, Russia, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Tomsk State University, Russia, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Raisa A. Elmurzaeva
Siberian State Medical University, Tomsk, Russia, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Anatoly A. Zemtsov
Siberian State Medical University, Tomsk, Russia, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Olga V. Kudelina
Siberian State Medical University, Tomsk, Russia, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
TERRA ECONOMICUS, 2023, Vol. 21 (no. 2),
Within the human capital and entrepreneurship research, the entrepreneurial ability of business owners and employees is a promising factor of production. This study explores the evolution of innovative companies currently registered as the residents of Skolkovo Innovation Center in Russia. We focus on the innovation and entrepreneurship initiative in privately owned Russian companies from 2001 to 2020. To analyze the entrepreneurship concentration among Skolkovo residents, we created a database “The Community of Skolkovo Residents”. The qualitative parameters of companies include the classification of business owners depending on legal entities and individuals, as well as the place where the company was established. Quantitative parameters include: the number of owners of Skolkovo resident companies; owner’s shares in authorized capital; the year of company’s foundation; the number of employees; the amount of state support for companies. Our database relies on the typology of companies into start-ups and corporate companies. We developed criteria to identify four stages of Skolkovo residents’ evolution, and revealed the linear growth of their number from 2001 to 2020. We conclude that the future of the community of Skolkovo residents is related to overcoming the existing trend of individualism with over-centralization of power in the hands of the sole founder. The number of founders from 2 to 4 is typical for Skolkovo resident microenterprises and coincides with the Silicon Valley standard. The improvement of entrepreneurship ability of business owners and employees in innovative companies is associated with the consent mechanisms withing the framework of the “Rhenish” model of capitalism by Michel Albert.
Citation: Lozhnikova A.V., Elmurzaeva R.A., Zemtsov A.A., Kudelina O.V. (2023). Owners and employees of Skolkovo resident companies: An empirical analysis. Terra Economicus 21(2), 84–100 (in Russian). DOI: 10.18522/2073-6606-2023-21-2-84-100
Acknowledgment: The study was supported by the Development Program of Tomsk State University (Priority-2030), by the Development Program of Siberian State Medical University (Priority-2030)
Managed urban shrinkage in Russia: Logic, opportunities, and implementation
Sergei Volkov
Volzhsky Institute of Economics, Pedagogy and Law; Volgograd State Technical University, Russia, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Volzhsky Institute of Economics, Pedagogy and Law; Volgograd State Technical University, Russia, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
TERRA ECONOMICUS, 2023, Vol. 21 (no. 2),
In this study, I deal with the phenomenon of shrinking cities using data on the Volgograd Region of Russia. The emergence of shrinking cities is described regarding main contributing factors. International experience on urban depopulation shows several directions for implementing a policy of controlled compression. However, literature suggests no single strategy to tackle the problem of shrinking cities due to its complexity. The paper proposes a flowchart for managing the process of shrinking cities, which includes the following steps: analysis and diagnostics of the current state of affairs; identifying priorities for development and management; implementing a set of measures to control compression; rethinking; policy adjustment. The process of managing the compression of urban space is inherently cyclical. This fact implies that, as a result of each cycle, regional management achieves one or more key performance indicators. Performance indicators are both quantitative (the number of residents, the number of business structures, the level of salaries, recreational facilities, etc.) and qualitative ones (the quality of urban environment, the quality of life in cities, the level of happiness, etc.). Managing the process of urban shrinkage implies high attention not only to local socio-economic, geographical and resource factors, but also to the cultural, historical, political and institutional environment.
Citation: Volkov S. (2023). Managed urban shrinkage in Russia: Logic, opportunities, and implementation. Terra Economicus 21(2), 101–115 (in Russian). DOI: 10.18522/2073-6606-2023- 21-2-101-115
Acknowledgment: The study was supported by the Russian Science Foundation, Project No. 21-18-00271 «Logic, Institutions, and Development Strategies of “Shrinking” Old Industrial Cities: A Synthesis of Heterodox Approaches»